The Center for the Study of Politics and Governance at the U of M’s Humphrey Institute of Public Affairs (whew, that’s a mouthful) has conducted a poll of the races forMinnesota governor and senator.
Senate race tomorrow night. Guv race numbers just released and they show:
Democrat Mike Hatch, 44 percent
Republican Tim Pawlenty, 42 percent
Independence-ite Peter Hutchinson, 9 percent.
The survey was based on interviews with 1,023 Minnesota voters, Sept. 13-18. Big sample, five days of interviews. All signs of serious poll.
Larry Jacobs, director of the center and Minnesota’s gift to political science, has scrutinized the results. Here’s the full writeup of Jacobs’ analysis. The short version is that Pawlenty has a high approval rating (56%) and a plurality (48%) think the state is headed in the right direction. Furthermore, Pres. Bush’s low approval rating (38%) doesn’t seem to be much of a drag on Pawlenty. So it’s counterintuitive that Pawlenty isn’t ahead, Jacobs says.
His best clue to explain these results are:
Education and health care lead the list of “biggest problems facing the state” in the poll, and Hatch clobbers Pawlenty on the “”which candidate do you think will do a better on handling the issue” on both health care and education.