What do you think about the leaked intelligence estimate on Iraq?
September 27th, 2006 – 9:22 AM by Eric BlackPres. Bush has questioned the motives of those who leaked a National Intelligence Estimate that says the war in Iraq has undermined the war against terrorism. He declassified portions of the report, and reasserted that “going on the offensive against people who want to do harm to America” was a good idea.
Here’s the declassified portion of the report.
Here’s the transcript of the White House press conference, featuring Bush and Afghan Pres. Karzai, at which Bush talked about the leak and the report.
Here’s the latest AP analysis piece on the topic, which is currently on the cover of the Strib’s website.
And here’s the L.A. Times piece that the paper Strib ran on the front page today.
What do you think? Should the leakers have leaked it? Do you believe that the portions declassified by Bush are enough to form a conclusion about what the intelligence estimate really said? Do you buy the idea that the war in Iraq strengthening the jihadist movement? Do you buy the idea that Iraq is the central front in the war on terror and retreat from that war would strengthen the jihadists?
482 Responses to "What do you think about the leaked intelligence estimate on Iraq?"
Well, it’s obvious that leakers should be able to get out the parts that are damaging to the President, right? Because ‘classified’ means nothing. And it’s unfair that the administration should try to fight back by releasing more of it. Especially when those parts add more context to the report.
I don’t know that this report didn’t tell us anything that serious and thoughtful people don’t already know. Will terrorists try to use US forces in Iraq as a recruiting tool? Of course they will! They’ll spin anything they can to their advantage. If we’d kept the status quo they’d have accused us of killing Iraqi children with sanctions. If we’d have dropped sanctions they’d have celebrated Hussein’s ability to hold out. They’d have recruited by pointing out the low price of resisting the US.
Oh, and if someone would point the Strib’s editorial board towards this sentence ‘Should jihadists leaving Iraq perceive themselves, and be perceived, to have failed, we judge fewer fighters will be inspired to carry on the fight.’, it’d be nice. The single biggest victory we can hand to global terrorists is the viewpoint that we’ll fold under a little pressure.
The fact that this blog is even asking the present question points up the failure of it in particular and the StarTribune in general to do its job of getting facts out to the public and serve as critical component of democracy.
This is what the Iraq initiative has entailed:
An illegal and unnecessary invasion and occupation of a non-agressor nation, which has cost up to 150,000 Iraqi civilian lives along with those of 3,000 US troops, all at a direct cost to the nation of $250 billion and counting.
The rationale given for this colossal crime constantly shifts, depending on what appears most saleable at the time: the “enemy” has WMD and is an imminent threat to the US (proved false); the US must spread democracy (proved unfeasible); the US must prevent civil war (proved impossible); the US must go on the offensive against evildoers (why in this manner?); etc. The reasons change with the weather. You’d think it would drive the liars nuts, having to concoct a new alibi every day.
The leaked potions of the NIE raise serious questions about the Bush admin’s credibility. They’ve claimed for years that that removing Saddam has made the world safer. Some voices have been questioning those statements, and now it would appear that parts of the intelligence community agree.
The Bush administration’s response is that cutting and running would embolden the terrorists. There are a few problems with this statement. First, it presumes that the options are ’stay the course’ or ‘cut and run.’ What really needs to happen is a reevaluation of our strategy in Iraq to determine what the best course of action is. Second, the statement implies that we’re fighting terrorists who can all be classified as ‘al Qaida’ types. This is not true; there are insurgents in Iraq who are fighting each other for control, as well as fighting the US as an occupying force. There are also groups there that are fighting the US because of who we are, but they are not responsible for all the violence there. So, in the end, the Bush administration is doing itself a disservice by disingenuously rephrasing the argument to be ’stay the course’ or ‘cut and run.’ If they would come clean to the American people about the reality on the ground in Iraq & work with Congress in a bipartisan fashion to determine the best course of action, we’d all be better off. Instead, Bush labels himself the ‘decider’ and keeps Rumsfeld on the job, who continues to mismanage the conflict. The one thing Rumsfeld got right was the blitzkrieg into Baghdad, since then all his assumptions & predictions have been proven wrong. Its long past time for new leadership of the Pentagon & for Bush to make it happen. It boggles the mind that he continues to be so stubborn about staying the wrong course in Iraq.
I don’t know how Bush can credibly respond to this report. Of course he’ll say it’s nonsense, but does any rational person believe him? No way in hell.
Now he’s going to “declassify” other portions of the report. Yeah, this means they’ll sift through the report and release only items that are favourable to Bush (if there indeed are any). They’ve already said they won’t release the whole thing because that might aid the enemy, which is the biggest bunch of crap ever.
Like respond to the section that states that Al Quada leadership has been severely damaged and its operations disrupted by US counter terrorism activities?
As far as “staying the course” and cutting and running being the only two options, in essense they are.
bSimon talks about some sort of bipartisanship activities, but clearly there are no such options. The Democrats have played political opposition from the very beginning of the conflict.
I think that he is sincere in his wishing for a strategy “reevaluation” but the information he is basing this on is partisan squabble. “Bush has no plan” is a familiar refrain coming from the left side of the aisle. The adage that if you say it enough, and apparently loud enough, that in some places it will stick is true.
The dead giveaway is that the individuals calling for a new plan, and simulatenously Donald Rumsfeld’s head, cite no reasons for or alternatives to the current course of action.
The only real alternative proposal cited by the opposition is cut and run, maybe modified by some sort of perfect knowledge withdrawal schedule.
The facts on the ground is that Iraq is gaining political stability every day within its government and gaining internal security capabilites every day within its security forces.
These are the real measures of success of failure in Iraq. Creating these entities is not a continuous, non-negative process. There are ups and downs.
THe claim that Iraq is on the verge of a civil war is one of the latest “issues” being reported. News flash, hot off the presses, Iraq has always been on the verge of civil war between its three major ethnic-religious groups. The US and UK have flown missions for 15 years supporting the no-fly zones over Iraq in support of dissident Iraqi groups in the North and South.
The Democrats have taken advantage of every down in a manner that is quite extraordinary, and to a point were it is quite reasonable that they are arguing for the failure of the mission. Some of their behaviour has passed to the shameful level.
The news media is also complicent in this because they only focus on the downs. Car bombings and casaulties are the headlines. They have come to the conclusion that the US is losing this war.
How anyone can make this claim, again, is extraordinary. Casualties are inherent in war, but the casualties inthis war, tragic as they are, are minimal. The entire total of dead (including accidents) are about one weeks worth of KIAs in average fighting in WWII and about one days worth when the fighting was intense.
Want to complain about not having enough troops or de-baathing the Iraq army, those ships have already passed. Maybe they were errors, maybe they were not. Errors are made in war. Decisions are made before the results occur, if you happen to remember that. Most of those decisions were made for very valid reasons that events may have made wrong.
I think the report can be taken a bunch of ways. It contains some conclusions that are undeniably politically harmful to the administration’s view of the world. But it also offers some nuance even on those conclusions, and evidently declares it would be harmful to just leave.
It is of course possible to “buy” both those ideas as asked in the quoted paragraph.
Whatever you think of any of it, the fact that it was leaked and reported in a way that highlighted only the negative-to-the-administration aspects has to be entered into evidence in the ongoing debate over the existence of a liberal MSM, and its cooperative relationships with some aspects of the federal government.
“Should jihadists leaving Iraq perceive themselves, and be perceived, to have failed, we judge fewer fighters will be inspired to carry on the fight” was quoted by Bush, Peder and Mark to “prove” that our preemptive, immoral war against Iraq was not a waste of lives and money. None of them quoted the following qualifying sentence, however: “We assess that the underlying factors fueling the spread of the jihadist movement outweigh its vulnerabilities and are likely to do so for the duration of this Estimate.”
Even more important, none of them questioned for a moment that violence is the only answer to the problem of jihadism, BUT our intelligence services did (and earned my esteem).
They note near the bottom of Page 2 that “Exposing the religious and political straitjacket that is implied by the jihadists’ propaganda would help to divide them from the audiences they seek to persuade.”
They note a trend among Muslim clerics toward peaceful political activism, which could lead to broad rejection of violence. “In this way, the Muslim mainstream emerges as the most powerful weapon in the war on terror.”
George Bush would call this “naive,” no doubt, but Martin Luther King, Jr., and his followers would not; Mahatma Gandhi and his followers would not. They each liberated millions of people by teaching non-violence. And Eastern Europe liberated themselves from the Soviet Union by practicing nonviolence. Perhaps, if we’re lucky, a Muslim cleric we have never heard of will be the next Gandhi.
Perhaps America will wake up from its unreasonable fear of terrorism (as fostered by the Bush administration to keep us in line) and demand that Congress pass the legislation creating a Department of Peace (written by Dennis Kuchinich; companion bill submitted to the Senate by Mark Dayton). Wouldn’t learning ways to reach peaceful agreements beat preemptive wars any day? Read about it at www.thepeacealliance.org — many cities and groups have endorsed it, including the City of Minneapolis.
Should those who leaked this document be punished or praised? My personal opinion is that they should receive the Medal of Freedom from Mr. Bush’s successor.
Thank you, Bernice Vetsch. I am elated to know that I have fellow citizens such as you.
Those Americans who do love war should work through their agressions/frustrations by having sex or battling vicariously through support of a football team — not killing other human beings.
An element missing in this blog “discussion” is a cost/benefit analysis: even if the proponents of the illegal invasion and occupation of Iraq are somehow right, they need to answer the following: Have the alleged achievements been worth the lives of 3,000 American troops, 150,000 Iraqi civilians, and a dirct financial cost of $250 billion? They need to put that in a spreadsheet, analyze it, and produce an honest answer.
Also, elected officials need to apply the following test before launching the US into any war: “Is it worth sending my own son or daughter to fight?” If the answer is “no”, then there should be no war. This is the high threshold that needs to be applied.
And, once again, SHAME ON ERIC BLACK AND THE STARTRIBUNE FOR PERPETUATING A FALLACIOUS DEBATE OVER THE DEBACLE THAT IS IRAQ — THE US INITIATIVE THERE IS A COLOSSAL FAILURE AND A MASSIVE CRIME AND YOU SHOULD COVER IT AS SUCH, YOU COWARDS!!!!
Bernice, I doubt Bush would describe anyone pointing to the growth of a more moderate Muslim mainstream as naive. He would be thrilled by it.
You’ve evidently chosen not to believe him, but he has said since the beginning that part of the purpose of the war in his mind was to allow for the evolution of politics in the Middle East so such an outcome would be possible.
Obviously you disagree with the tactic, and it may well have been mistaken, and of course it wasn’t the whole story at all. But it was always part of the story.
To summarize W’s policy as “violence as the only approach to jihadism” is not based in reality. It’s based on your intense dislike of Bush.
Amen Bernice - this is why I have always said we are not going to “win” a war on terror with military force. Yes, we may occasionally have to use force to go after terrorist camps, etc., but not an entire country that was never proven to be actively involved (funding is more passive) in training terrorists.
I believe the muslim community really needs to stand up and be more vocal about condemning terrorism and some of the Islamic reasoning that is out there. So far, I have not heard enough of that.
I also agree that the leakers deserve praise and I think the creators of the NIE deserve credit for honest thinking and reasoning. If this were like the war planning effort, we would not have been allowed access to this information because it was contrary to the administration’s thinking.
Michael, ditto for you comment about Americans who “love war.”
Think about this for a second: what if you’re just dead wrong about the Americans you have in mind, the idea that they “love war?” Suddenly what you’re saying becomes a form of hate speech, right?
There’s no way around that. Which is why you’ll resist to the limits of logic and emotion the idea that you’re wrong.
Michael Blaine - don’t forget to include the over 10,000 injured soldiers. A large portion of them have been so seriously injured that their lives have been completely altered.
I believe that the pre-emptive strike against Iraq may have been “fair” if “all” indications were that Iraq was on the verge of using WMD against us or another country. I think the rest of the world would have been comfortable with that scenario. But, unlike us, they weren’t fooled by a lack of credible intelligence and they saw the potential disaster that would be created in the new Iraq.
Mark claims “bSimon talks about some sort of bipartisanship activities, but clearly there are no such options. The Democrats have played political opposition from the very beginning of the conflict.”
Well, we’ll have to agree to disagree on that. As has been pointed out before, there was bipartisan support of the resolution that allowed us to go into Iraq.
The point that is important to make is that the NIE implies that Iraq is not the central front in the war on terror. Whatever we do in Iraq - i.e. add troops, stay the course, or leave - there is a terrorism problem elsewhere that is not being adequately addressed. As the NIE states, al Qaida leadership isn’t what it once was; there are now more independent terrorist cells throughout the world. The war in Iraq does not address this problem. In my opinion, this administration’s greatest failure is their insistence that you can fight terrorism with the military. When it comes to displacing the Taliban, or deposing Saddam, the military works great. When it comes to ferreting out jihadists intent on attacking US civilians, the military is not equipped for the job. Its time to resume our focus on terrorism as a problem and admit that the conflict in Iraq is not adequately addressing the threat of terrorist attacks on the US.
Just to throw in the clarification I sometimes have to make: Bush didn’t take the war decision nearly seriously enough, and I believe that fact in itself pushes him up at least to the edge of impeachability: given the stakes, and the fact that such high stake demand the highest possible standards for a president.
But the stakes and the standards apply to everybody, not just the president.
Many many years ago, from a Mike Royko column in the wake of LBJ’s announcement he wasn’t going to run: “He may not have been the best president this country has ever had. But we sure as hell haven’t been the best people a president has ever had.”
(I’m not sure the “hell” was in the original. But the quote is near-exact.)
It’s good to know that Peder sees 3,000 Americans dead, $300,000,000,000 dollars, and 10,000 American wounded to be “a little pressure”. I happen to see it as awfully significant pressure.
The report was leaked because the rest of the government is frustrated with Bush. the President’s idea of a faith-based initiative is that he’s talked himself into believing something, therefore, it’s ordained, and not to be questioned. take that on faith.
it’s pretty obvious that this president is as driven by reality as it is that his lime-green Paisley sky is pretty if you’re pickled.
the document needs to be released. he won’t do it because it makes him look bad. but then, we already know he’s hopelessly confused.
what has happened is his last line of defense for the midterm elections, screaming 9/11 and waving a flag, is without argument proven bogus by events, world opinon, and finally, by his own government security, analysis, and military.
time to shut down der Busher by defeating all Republicans, turning over the House and Senate to veto-proof majorities, and let them run the country by bill and veto override. if we elected hamburger clowns instead of Democrats, it would still be better than having Bushleaguers ruining things instead of running things.
Hey, that’s not a bad idea, the hamburger clowns thing. I like that. Are there enough of them though? I only know of a couple.
David Ignatius has a good piece in today’s Wash Post. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/09/26/AR2006092601137.html?nav=hcmoduletmv
He rightfully chastises the Democrats for playing ‘gotcha’ politics. Is Bush ignoring the realities of the Iraq problem? Yes. Are Democrats suggesting a viable alternative? No. And that is the problem. Whether you call it ‘cut and run’ or ’strategic redeployment,’ the Democrats have not suggested a good alternative policy for Iraq. As Mr Ignatius says (I paraphrase), “How are we going to keep Iraq from becoming a failed state?” Hey, I don’t know the answer either, but so far, neither major party is making a reasonable suggestion.
I think the mode of disclosure was cowardly. As for the other questions posed here, they’re sticky.
Mr. Ellsberg has an excellent article in this month’s Harpers Magazine in which he calls for the leak of our Iran invasion plans, preferably before we do our invading. In certain circumstances, the leak of classified documents is not only justified by required by a sense of duty to country. Loyalty among elected officers and buracrats alike should be to the Constitution and to the People long before loyalty to a particular politician or party. I do not believe that this leak meets the criteria, at least in so far as it is meant to foster discussion of our current millitary misadventure.
I strongly feel that if you’re leaking documents, you should have strong enough convictions to face the legal consequinces of your actions. Prison time and the loss of one’s carreer are a small price to pay in defense of one’s nation and national identity. This leaker fails.
Second, to me, the leak seems to have been motivated by a domestic political agenda relating to the mid-term elections. As I mentioned in an earlier thread, the GOP is polling very strongly among people who hold the war on terror as the most important issue. Undermining the public’s opinion of Mr. Bush in regard to the war on terror seems to be the principal aim of the leak.
I agree that the war in Iraq is hurting us in terms of increasing terrorism. I held this view prior to the invasion and I hold it now. Yet, I also agree that to leave Iraq now would increase terrorism further - a view I have held since about a month after the occupation began. So, in my view, in terms of the Iraq war, this document does little to further the public debate. The small public benefit to be garnered from this leak would be a discussion of the wisdom of the doctrine of pre-emptive war, which I think is now and has always been widely dismissed by the public - who clearly does not decide US foreign policy questions. As such, the leak was unnecessary.
I do, however, question the necessity of classifying the document in the first place. At least for the parts that have been disclosed, there was clearly no national security issue with its release - if there were, it would still be classified. I take offense at the adminsitration treating the public like children who are unable to reason and who therefore should be deprived of knowledge for their own good. My opinion is that the administration is ‘top secret’ happy for politically motivated reasons, just as my opinion is that this leak was politically motiviated. For this reason, I am not satisfied with the declassified portions of the document in assessing the document’s overall conclusions.
Paul, the President has to take ultimate responsibility for the things that happen under his administration, especially things that they have actually “controlled”. Gas prices are not easily controlled by a president. The administration was clearly motivated to go to war and they were going to stop at nothing less. They had pretty well declared war before a vote was even taken to authorize it.
We as a people never had an opportunity to make an informed decision about going to war with Iraq. We were told that “absolutely, we will find WMD”. And it was suggested that the highest level intelligence clearly demonstrated the presence of WMD in Iraq. Now we know that those were both dead wrong and we are finally getting the see the evidence to the contrary that did exist, which the administration chose to ignore. That’s why people like myself are pissed off. I left it up to the president (whom I did not vote for) and his staff to make a solid, well-informed decision. They ignored a wealth of information because it did not fit their agenda. So yes, I also agree he is impeachable for that. The Reps wanted to impeach Clinton for having sex and we can’t impeach Bush for failing to look at all sides of a potential war effort, and for failing to create a substantial “post-war” plan that would properly and quickly rebuild Iraq.
Bush administration pre-war projections:
Likely cost of war: 1.7 billion
Number of troops: 30,000 American
Length of war: ~6 months to exit
Insurgency: won’t happen
Coalition: lots of countries will join
This list of misperceptions goes on and on and on.
“there is a terrorism problem elsewhere that is not being adequately addressed.”
Is surely does not say that. It says that there is a terrorism problem. It also says that the US has been effective in reducing the terrorist capability.
The NIE report essentially states that the terrorist are substituting quality with quantity. The new “jihadist” are more diffuse and have less capabilities than the old ones.
In the NIE it states that car bombing and IEDs will most likely be their prefered methods of operations.
Because of this, and MOST CRITICALLY, it states that these groups pose less of a threat to the United States directly. The Homeland is more secure.
IT also states that the current course of developing democratic institutions is the best hearts and minds alternative. Most of these new “jihadist” will go home and vote for their candidates in the parliment to achieve their objectives.
So, you can talk about Ghandi and Martin Luther Kind all you want. Their kind of non-violent methods may be effective against policies of a western democracy but will not be effective against muslim extremists.
The proper course in Iraq is clearly made more clear in the NIE. Establish an effective Iraqi federal government that will be an outlet for the political concerns of “moderate” Sunnis.
“Bush didn’t take the war decision nearly seriously enough”
This is a ridiculous statement. Given the 12 years of intelligence estimates about Iraq’s capabilities and conduct, and the actions of 9/11 it is a wonder that he waited so long.
Clinton should have taken him out in 1998 when he had the entire country with him. THey would have found WMDs on the ground then so the excercise would have been “worth it”. In 1998 Saddam’s Fedayeen was not as established in Southern Iraq which suppressed the local inhabitants so the invasion would have been met with more local support.
This was a missed opportunity but one that was easy to miss. Clinton should not be held accountable, but this would have been his chance for a true legacy.
bsimon-that’s because there is no good answer. The problem is how we ended up there in the first place. Unfortunately we now have to figure out how to clean up the mess. We’ve adopted Iraq and now we have to figure out how to raise this child. Unfortunately, I don’t think they want to live in our family.
I agree that the Democrats have to come up with a plan. Whether it is “get out soon” or whatever, they need to agree on a plan to present. Right now they look like idiots because they are criticising but not providing any solutions. They are in a tough position because of all the “cut and run” accusations that are thrown around. Getting out gets labeled as cowardly and weak, even if it may be the right thing to do.
Justin - the leak gives some support to people who, like you and I, have claimed that war is increasing the risk of terrorism. It’s one of those pieces of evidence that are “citable” in our defense in a debate about the subject. So it may not “further” the debate but it does provide documentation of the topic.
The only important thing I’d quibble with there is the notion of a “wealth” of ignored information. I don’t think I’ll ever be satisfied that I really know at a gut level what all the information coming in felt like to the decision-makers.
And I do think it’s necessary to keep in mind the strength of the long bipartisan consensus that of course Hussein was still hiding weapons. That stretched well back to the 1990’s. It was not an invention of W’s, as a lot of people seem to now believe. That’s just historical amnesia.
But I agree that they were determined to do it. And it doesn’t matter if it was a wealth of counter-evidence or not; any significant uncertainty on the actual existence of WMDs needed to be acknowledged and entered into the debate. Because it was always clear - no WMDs was going to be pretty much a policy disaster.
“Mr. Ellsberg has an excellent article in this month’s Harpers Magazine in which he calls for the leak of our Iran invasion plans, preferably before we do our invading”
That is treason, pure and simple.
Mark -
I figured I’d hear from you again. We just disagree on this, on W’s failures on this, although I know what you’re saying in a lot of your comment.
I don’t think it’s quite realistic to say Clinton would have had the whole country with him in 1998 had he decided to depose Hussein. He would have it got real hard from the left and the right, with both sides including the wag the dog accusation.
“But I agree that they were determined to do it. And it doesn’t matter if it was a wealth of counter-evidence or not; any significant uncertainty on the actual existence of WMDs needed to be acknowledged and entered into the debate. ”
1. I think that the statement “they were determined to do it” is overbroad. I will agree that the Bush Adminstration had decided before 9/11 that if they were given a provocation by Saddam Hussein they were going to take him out once and for all. “Revenge” for daddy? Hey maybe. But it is very clear that they saw the lobbing of cruise missles and airstrikes as practiced by the Clinton administration as a meaningless gesture that accomplished nothing with Iraq or Al Quaeda.
2. In every critical foreign policy and military decsion there has always been counter-evidence that was “ignored”.
There is a whole industry on the pre-Pearl Harbor intelligence that was ignored, with some claiming that FDR purposefully invited Japanese attack. Only God could have helped Roosevelt if this would have happened in the political discourse of this era.
“UNNAMED CIA SOURCES INDICATE THAT THE PRESIDENT WAS WARNED THAT THE JAPANSESE INTENDED TO USE CARRIER BASED AIRCRAFT TO ASSAULT US INTERES”
“US FORCES NOT ON ALERT AND PLANES WERE NOT DISPERSED WHEN JAPANESE ATTACKED. “I warned them that they needed to be ready for a Japanese attack and disperse the planes” stated Major Dwight Eisenhower, late of Douglas Mccarthur’s staff. “Harry Stimson has got to go for creating the ridiculous idea that aircraft carriers and naval aviation are going to replace the true naval weapon of superiority, the battleship” Admiral Husband Kimmell stated before a rump committee of Republican Senators, who high fived each other with glee as he made these statements. “Too much military force has been diverted to the European theatre” remarked Admiral Ernest King “we need the entire navy in the Pacific”.
Beautiful!
” don’t think it’s quite realistic to say Clinton would have had the whole country with him in 1998 had he decided to depose Hussein.”
Whatever….every US Senator and almost every US Representative had just voted on a resolution that stated that removing Saddam Hussein was OFFICIAL US POLICY. 1998. OFFICIAL US POLICY. REGIME CHANGE. GET RID OF HIM.
Today I am signing into law H.R. 4655, the “Iraq Liberation Act of 1998.” This Act makes clear that it is the sense of the Congress that the United States should support those elements of the Iraqi opposition that advocate a very different future for Iraq than the bitter reality of internal repression and external aggression that the current regime in Baghdad now offers.
Let me be clear on what the U.S. objectives are: The United States wants Iraq to rejoin the family of nations as a freedom-loving and law-abiding member. This is in our interest and that of our allies within the region.
The United States favors an Iraq that offers its people freedom at home. I categorically reject arguments that this is unattainable due to Iraq’s history or its ethnic or sectarian make-up. Iraqis deserve and desire freedom like everyone else. The United States looks forward to a democratically supported regime that would permit us to enter into a dialogue leading to the reintegration of Iraq into normal international life.
My Administration has pursued, and will continue to pursue, these objectives through active application of all relevant United Nations Security Council resolutions. The evidence is overwhelming that such changes will not happen under the current Iraq leadership.
In the meantime, while the United States continues to look to the Security Council’s efforts to keep the current regime’s behavior in check, we look forward to new leadership in Iraq that has the support of the Iraqi people. The United States is providing support to opposition groups from all sectors of the Iraqi community that could lead to a popularly supported government.
On October 21, 1998, I signed into law the Omnibus Consolidated and Emergency Supplemental Appropriations Act, 1999, which made $8 million available for assistance to the Iraqi democratic opposition. This assistance is intended to help the democratic opposition unify, work together more effectively, and articulate the aspirations of the Iraqi people for a pluralistic, participa–tory political system that will include all of Iraq’s diverse ethnic and religious groups. As required by the Emergency Supplemental Appropriations Act for FY 1998 (Public Law 105-174), the Department of State submitted a report to the Congress on plans to establish a program to support the democratic opposition. My Administration, as required by that statute, has also begun to implement a program to compile information regarding allegations of genocide, crimes against humanity, and war crimes by Iraq’s current leaders as a step towards bringing to justice those directly responsible for such acts.
The Iraq Liberation Act of 1998 provides additional, discretionary authorities under which my Administration can act to further the objectives I outlined above. There are, of course, other important elements of U.S. policy. These include the maintenance of U.N. Security Council support efforts to eliminate Iraq’s weapons and missile programs and economic sanctions that continue to deny the regime the means to reconstitute those threats to international peace and security. United States support for the Iraqi opposition will be carried out consistent with those policy objectives as well. Similarly, U.S. support must be attuned to what the opposition can effectively make use of as it develops over time. With those observations, I sign H.R. 4655 into law.
WILLIAM J. CLINTON
THE WHITE HOUSE,
October 31, 1998.
Enough said on this matter.
Paul- I agree that WMD was not made up by Bush. But he’s the one that chose to act on it and tell everyone he was “absolutely sure” they were there. Even congress failed to question the evidence because they made it seem so sure and that it was in the form of the “highest intelligence”. The book “Fiasco” provides a lot of quotes and examples from military, civilian and intelligence authorities who seriously questioned Bush’s plans and agenda.
All of you people can pretend that Bush came to office and just dreamed all of these things up about Iraq. You can ignore all the previous statements. But read the signing message of President Clinton and you will see that BUSH just pursued the course to its logical end.
When they got the opportunity to take him out they were going to take him out for the very reasons Clinton states.
ALSO NOTE, Clinton states “The United States favors an Iraq that offers its people freedom at home. I categorically reject arguments that this is unattainable due to Iraq’s history or its ethnic or sectarian make-up.” The next time you call the Bush goals of Democracy in Iraq stupid pipedreams he made up on his own, think again.
“But it is very clear that they saw the lobbing of cruise missles and airstrikes as practiced by the Clinton administration as a meaningless gesture that accomplished nothing with Iraq or Al Quaeda.”
Funny how when our troops secured the country it was shown those rocket attacks had seriously disabled Saddam’s weapons program and taken away his regime’s motivation to pursue it. And his military forces were much less than 1/2 what he’d had in 1991.
Mark, have you read the NIE excerpt to which Eric has helpfully linked, above? Here’s the summary info on Page 1, under “Key Findings.” It seems to validate my position that Iraq is not the ‘central front’ and that we need to focus on worldwide activities.
“United States-led counterterrorism efforts have seriously damaged the leadership of
al-Qa’ida and disrupted its operations; however, we judge that al-Qa’ida will continue to
pose the greatest threat to the Homeland and US interests abroad by a single terrorist
organization. We also assess that the global jihadist movement—which includes al-
Qa’ida, affiliated and independent terrorist groups, and emerging networks and cells—is
spreading and adapting to counterterrorism efforts.
• Although we cannot measure the extent of the spread with precision, a large body
of all-source reporting indicates that activists identifying themselves as jihadists,
although a small percentage of Muslims, are increasing in both number and
geographic dispersion.
• If this trend continues, threats to US interests at home and abroad will become
more diverse, leading to increasing attacks worldwide.
• Greater pluralism and more responsive political systems in Muslim majority
nations would alleviate some of the grievances jihadists exploit. Over time, such
progress, together with sustained, multifaceted programs targeting the
vulnerabilities of the jihadist movement and continued pressure on al-Qa’ida,
could erode support for the jihadists.”
I do not disagree with your claim that promoting democracy is a key ingredient. I do contend that limiting such efforts to Iraq and Afghanistan will fall short of what is necessary.
Lets conduct a thought exercise for a moment. Lets pretend Iraq is not in the picture. On Sept 11, 2001, we were attacked by a bunch of Saudis, Yemenis and Pakistanis. What are we doing today to keep a similar group from attempting to repeat that event? It is my contention that the Bush doctrine effectively ignores this need.
When did I say Bush “dreamed all these things up” or that his goals were “pipedreams he made up on his own”? Sorry, never said it. His administration’s stated reason for going to war was WMD. You can try to convince people about all the other “supposed” reasons for the war, but WMD war “the reason” used because it was the one reason that was “scary” enough to get the people of this country to agree to getting their sons and daughters killed in order to accomplish it.
Mark, I agree that what you’re saying about long-term US policy on Iraq is at least valid, more than valid, and the continual refusal of the anti-war left to akcnowledge that isn’t fair. It isn’t fair to Bush, but that’s not the issue that matters; it’s not fair to the country.
To me, and I’ve said this before, it’s damn-near undeniable that had we chosen not to do the war, it would have continued to be strong, bipartisan consensus that we still needed to get the regime changed over there. It would have been a major national policy. Someone can say it shouldn’t have been, but that doesn’t address whether it would have been.
And nearly as undeniable is that having backed away from the war because the UN didn’t support it, all of our and Britain’s efforts to hem him in and take him down, clandestine or otherwise, would have been occurring in an international context of withering support for the sanctions, for sure, and even fairly quickly for the coerceive inspections, since - we know now - nothing would have been found. And of course the last gasp of coerceive inspections only happened because of the presence of hundreds of thousands of troops on his border, which was not sustainable.
All of this has to be taken into account if you’re going to insist that there was an obviously better path available for W.
(The obviously better path I see is a long shot: back off, keep some troops in place, reapproach the European powers especially with a better argument, one acknowledging the uncertainty on the WMDs and de-emphasizing their central improtance in the basic case. It’s a long shot because I don’t think this admin was capable of it, and I don’t think it would have worked.
(Although: I did read an opinion piece one time that made a good point: In 1990-91, the French for example were also commercially intertwined with Hussein, and were also initially reluctant to go along with military action to get him out of Kuwait. But they were persuaded. So it might have been possible again with a better argument.)
Well. while you guys are taking this ESTIMATE as pure hard fact, consider this.
It also states that the internet is a tool being used more and more to recruit terrorists.
How come those of you who take it as gospel that it’s guess that the iraq war is placing us in greate danger are not also calling for limiting folks internet access? I mean come on, it says right in the thing the internet is causing terrorism to spread.
In case you forgot. This is an ESTIMATE, read guess. Or if you want to be kind, call it an considered opinion.
Leaking portions of this document prior to it’s declassification by the classification authority was a crime. Leaking only those portions that help you politically was misleading, and is exactatly the same as what your screaming about concerning the Bachman campaign on the other thread here.
You cant have it both ways
By the way, to say they were “determined” to do it is not the same as saying they wrong in that. But it still seems to have led to some carelessness, is the point.
Today, now, what does it matter why we’re in Iraq? The fact is that we’re there & that there are consequences to staying or leaving. Bickering about the 1998-2002 intelligence is pointless. For one thing, neither side is going to convince the other of its position. More importantly, ‘winning’ that argument does nothing to solve the problem we’re faced with today, which is “What now?” The prospect of staying sucks. The prospect of leaving, while initially attractive, would likely make things worse, therefore it also sucks. We’re stuck. Pick your metaphor; frying pans & fires, rocks & hard places, a bad option & a worse.
Sure Les, we can stop muslims and anyone we want from using the internet. Let’s get rid of the phone service to them too. Seriously, do you think trying to limit internet access would be feasible?
One of the major stories regarding this leak should be the hypocrisy of the DEM leaders–i.e. Reid, Pelosi, Clinton and comrades.
When the small snipet reached the newspapers, their reaction was that the Iraq war was causing more terrorism–no further info needed. No call for the full report to see if anything taken out of context. Of course, we now see when you read the sentence before and after the leaked portion, it basically says just the opposite.
This calling for more classified documents to be released is just more dribble from the lackluster leadership of the DEMS on the national level. This is just another overblown, over-hyped story because the DEMS have no agenda.
I concede I generally (but not always) vote GOP, but it is because they offer ideas rather than criticism. Case in point is Mike Hatch. Although I do not agree with many of his agenda items, at least he is offering something–i.e. health care coverage for all–other than just criticizing Pawlenty. The national DEMS should do likewise and they will win more elections.
bsimon - I agree with you – Democrats and Republicans are never going to agree with each other’s point of view on Iraq, especially, now. I would like to see our political leaders move past the rhetoric and onto the real business – we are there, we need to change the situation on the ground, stabilize the country, and then get the hell out of there.
Odd, I thought this blog concerned the merits of full v. redacted release of an increasingly important intelligence report.
Can we get back on track, or is squalid gutter-sniping on side issues the best we can do?
For instance: the White House–and Bush in particular–claimed the “leaked” information misrepresented the full picture of the report. Then, claiming American’s deserved to formulate their own conclusions about the report’s assement of his “war-on-terror strategy”, he then authorizes a partial release of information.
Clearly. there’s political points being scored on both sides. But seriously…how could any rational person believe that selective declassification that favors the Adminstration’s claims represent the “context” lacking from the “leaked intelligence”, or that this partial release is itself anything but a naked attempt to manipulate partisan favor?
bsimon: Clinton suggests that Fox News read Richard Clarke and I have decided to read him myself to learn this piece of history better.
I think it does still matter why we’re in Iraq. The neocons and their poster boy, George Bush, lied and manipulated us into a war that has killed thousands of people, irreparably damaged Iraq and unsettled the entire Middle East (in order to re-create it as The New Middle East). And cost so much money we are forever in debt to China and other foreign bond-holders.
If we do not understand the first pre-emptive war we will not be alert to the real possibility of a second. Remember, the hit list also includes Iran, Syria and North Korea.
Ed E:
you miss the point. And by the way, limiting or jamming selected bandwidth (and phone or radio communications) is entirely feasable, Denial of service attacks against selected sites comes immediately to mind. It’s all a part of information warfare doctrine. Of course, one has to balance the shutting down of the sites or server against a loss of intelligence that may be gained from leaving them alone.
The point is your beating each other up about one thing, and ignoring the other. If one is important because it’s addressed in this document, so is the other.
TA; well said. Wish it would be so, but all political hacks consider winning the election much more important than actually performing the functions of government once the election is won.
Treason against the United States, shall consist only in levying war against them, or in adhering to their enemies, giving them aid and comfort.
I disagree that releasing war plans about Iran, prior to a declaration of war, could possibly constitute treason. Clearly it would not be considered ‘waging war’. As far as aid and comfort, it seems the constitution requires not only aid and comfort but also adherence. And an enemy.
So first, absent a declaration of war, Iran is our equal, a member of the community of soverign nations, our neighbor. Not an enemy.
Second, even if they were our enemy, we’d have to consider the motives of the person doing the releasing of the information before we trumped up the charge to treason. Clearly the release would violate state secrets laws. But unless the leaker were motivated by an allegiance to Iran, rather than an alligence to the US public, the adherence criteria would not be met.
The person who leaked this information should be prosecuted. It’s illegal to share classified information to anyone who should not have access to it. This was done purely as a political play against the current administration and their position on Iraq. In the past 2 years we have had enough damage done to our country with leaks on various classified information and programs. It’s time to follow through with the law and get these people in jail for compromising the security of this country.
“Squalid guttersniping” - hey, I’ll have you know I have respectable work in my past as an apprentice hamburger clown!
One very flimsy reason I suspect it could hypothetically be helpful to have an honest-from-both-sides re-assessment of our reasons for being in Iraq is because I think that would provide a far more nurturing environment for deciding what to do now.
Bush could help with this still, by the way, with a non-self-abasing but honest mea culpa on the WMD thing. Like he should have done in late 2003 or 2004.
Do I see it happening? No. Or something similar from Democratic leaders, some kind of reaching-across-the-aisle moment? Definitely no. Leaving us yes, with the necessity of deciding what to do now.
I hate to say it, but is there any other path but slogging through and letting the inter-sect fighting burn itself out?
I do believe that if the Shiite-Sunni thing could be calmed down, the international terrorist end of it would lose steam too.
At some point, it seems it would be important to Iran to see a stabilzed Iraq. And to Syria and all the others, too.
It’s amazing to me to read people blast the democrats for not having alternatives when it’s not the democrats who have made so many mistakes in national governance … they’ve been literally shut out of shaping national policy during this republican-dominated era
democrats (and other parties) do offer policy alternatives, but media coverage is virtually nonexistent
even absent policy alternatives … i’d rather vote for a democrat (or independent, or green), wondering if they’ll get it right, than continue to support the tragic mismanagement of our nation by republicans, who clearly are not getting it right imho
and the good news is, democrats (and other parties) do offer policy alternatives - if you don’t know what they are, write to a democratic candidate (or other party of your choice) and ask her or him what their plan is … you might be pleasantly surprised
Under a more lenient definition of Treason, under which only ‘aid and comfort’ are applied, doesn’t this leaked document indicate that Mr. Bush’s actions have granted aid and comfort to our enemies?
But seriously. I do agree with those here who say the leaker should be prosecuted. While those of us who feel the war was in a word, illegal, can point to this document to support our major claim, that it is counterproductive, I agree that people need to follow the law and accept the consequinces when they do not.
Les - thanks for putting me in my place. I actually truly was wondering if limiting internet access was possible and I’ll trust you that it is. It is actually an interesting thought but I wonder how it would be perceived if we used it.
But when laws fail the public it’s intended to protect–or worse, when the law employs subjective rather than objective standards (see: Dick Armitage’s admission to releasing classified information about an active CIA agent), as is currently the case–there is little “law” to enforce.
Importantly, keep in mind that the “violation” creating by releasing classifed information is now moot: the President had these same sections declassifed in order to provide the surrounding “context” of the message. On one hand that means that as of the moment of original “leak” of information, an infraction may have occured…but try making that argument now that large sections of the report, including those previously released, are now available for anyone.
If the adminstration spent as much time tracking down the source of Al Qaedi’s communications as they do scofflaws within their own community who get off-message, I suspect the intelligence report would have had a more favorable tone.
Bush and his neocons have used secrecy to keep the people uninformed to what is going on with this administration
I don’t condone leaks but if some thing like this is directley refuting what Bush has been spinning then it should be know
Any one with a ounce of inteligence could have seen that ivading Iraq was going to do this , every single reason Bush gives for staying the course and for being there are a DIRECT result of the invasion and none of wich was in Iraq prior to our invading - every single problem there is a result of Bush and his assinie policys
sorry for the errors in tense…wrote my last post on the go!
Ed E;
I wouldnt recommend this form of censorship/attack, and you have to balance any IW activities against revealling those capabilities when you’d rather gather intelligence, so no, I dont think it’d be a good idea.
Besides, It’s like your antivirus software, once you know about it, you can counter it, then another form of attack has to be developed, and so on and so on….
The real solution to our terrorism problem is addressed to some degree in this estimate. And that’s the Muslim leaders condemnation of the “jihadist’s” hijacking of thier religious beliefs to justify their terrorism. If reasonable Muslim leaders were to get the air time that the radicals get, things may start to improve. If they were to condemn those teaching children to “fight the western devil”, that would help.
Trouble is, I dont see them doing that. Someone said they were, but it just doesnt get printed in the western press. I find that hard to beleive that they are condeming these activities and it is not being reported.
If what the terrorist are doing in the name is Islam is not against the average Muslim’s beliefs, then I’m afraid we have a problem with no solution, regardless of what action we take.
Justin C. Adams: Thank you for mentioning Daniel Ellsberg’s eloquent and powerful commentary in the current edition of Harper’s. It had occurred to me that some of the government officials who revealed the thesis of the NIE before November 7 had been moved by it!!
Now that’s real journalism, unlike the StarTribune, where the most nimble thinker and most cogent voice belongs to the excellent Patrick Reusse of the Sports section!
As for the Ignatius piece, which we’re told here says the Republicans were literally dead wrong on the Iraq invasion but the Democrats have not provided a credible opposition, he’s sadly right on the mark. This country’s partisan duopoly broke down a long time ago, and it’s time for the citizenry to sweep it aside for good.
Let me add that this comment string is as close as I’ve seen to justifying the blog’s name of “The Big Question”: that is, whether one of the greatest democracies on Earth will continue to tolerate war criminals in government!!!!!
Unfortunately we often elect good people into office and then they are forced to conform to party lines and meet the needs of their constituency above all else. Somehow we need to get past that. We have become so polarized that many people are ready to say that a Rep/Dem couldn’t possibly have any good ideas just because of their affiliation. To me, Bush has proven his incompetency. I was willing to give him a chance, but I’ve been sadly disappointed. Although I lean left, I have heard some good ideas from Republicans.
This country was built on making the best of our differences. Now we end up muting the party that’s not in power. When the country is split 50/50, then 50% of the constituency is left feeling abandoned.
One thing I think we need to get rid of is the “add-ons” and have every bill be singular in nature. It’s not fair to have to say no to a war funding bill just because there is funding for a bridge to nowhere included in the bill. Can anyone tell me how that insane process got started in the first place.
Let’s stop all this nonsense about wmd’s and the notion saddam was an imminent threat. It was all bs from day 1. In 1997 an organization called the project for a new american century was formed. To understand why we are in iraq you have to understand how these neocons think. This document(also the basis for the bush National security strategy) outlines why we are in Iraq and what the Republican plan is. It can be read at
http://newamericancentury.org/RebuildingAmerica’sDefenses.pdf
This document is about 75 pages and will give you an idea just how deceitful this administration is. I’m still amazed that anyone actually believed that Iraq was a threat to this country. If i remember right i think the ST was one of the few papers that wrote about PNAC.
i think it is humorous how everybody gets so worked up. no one is going to change anyone elses mind about what they believe. has anyone ever yet read something here and suddenly had an epiphany, and switch beliefs—NO they have not and probably never will. democrats will still hate republicans and republicans will still hate democrats and michael b. will still believe he is superior to everyone. end of story.
Rod - maybe it’s people like you who are convinced that no one will change their mind who are the problem. I’ve read many posts that have, at least, really made me have to alter my thinking at least somewhat. I’m not so closed-minded that I won’t listen to someone else’s ideas. If I don’t agree with them, I’ll let them know and hopefully we can agree to disagree.
I tend to disagree more often with Republicans, but I don’t hate Republicans as a group. There are good and bad people on both sides of the aisle. I can admit that I don’t think too kindly of people who are strong Bush supporters or people who want to mix politics and religion, but I otherwise am willing to give them a chance.
That’s what we need in congress, people who are able, and willing to, look beyond party lines and do what’s best for the country. Poeple who are willing to look at all angles and make informed, well-thought-out decisions that are not just based on fear, religious beliefs, job security, opinion polls, etc. While I don’t expect to saturate Washington with those types of people in the near future, I hope we can start a slow process of invasion.
Amen to you Howard Miller. It’s the Dems that held the hearing with the retired Generals. Yeah they were blasting Rumsfeld for his mismanagement but they are not without insight and concrete ideas on what we should do next. One Repub participated. CSpan2 I think covered it live but how many watched it or read any of the transcripts? Bush sticks with Rumsfeld who has mismanaged badly, the Dems are bringing in others with credibility. Who do you trust to make the necessary changes?
Well said Ed E.
Dora says “the Dems that held the hearing with the retired Generals.”
Also note that the Dems were chearing the Generals in support of Rumsfeld-bashing, but tended to ignore the other suggestions, like we’d better get more troops over there if we want to avoid a bigger problem than we have now. So, yes, the Bush/Rummie team has fouled up the job badly, but the correct response is not to begin phased withdrawls.
Problem being, unfortunately, that we don’t really have a whole lot of troops sitting around looking for something to do.
bsimon: Yes they were and I certainly hope they don’t just focus on that. The Generals too are clear that Rumsfeld has to go but it shouldn’t stop with that. If the Dems are at least willing to let them have the microphone then we can start the necessary debates which is more than the current administration is even willing to do.
“I do contend that limiting such efforts to Iraq and Afghanistan will fall short of what is necessary.”
I am in 100% agreement. But you are assuming that we are limiting our efforts to Iraq and Afghanstan. There are operations going on all throughout the globe right now. There are political initiatives to Pakistan and other Middle Eastern countries. We are working to try and improve the democratic process all througout the region.
We ahve seen some of this in Lebanon and Palestine. The initial results are not as we wish, but they are results none the less. You see, when you have an opportunity to have your voices heard there comes a time when you become sick and tired of not getting results. Hezhollah in Lebanon may seem like a great thing today, but four more years of continued strife for nothing and the impetus to vote the bastards out becomes a force. And guess what, they now can!
“the UN didn’t support it,”
So what. The Russian and French interest meant that they would never support any action against the Hussein regime.
“The prospect of staying sucks. ”
I sort of think that you overstate the case. The potential value of staying in Iraq versus the cost are enormous. Well worth the costs in any historical framework.
“Clinton suggests that Fox News read Richard Clarke and I have decided to read him myself to learn this piece of history better.”
Which Richard Clarke. Richard Clarke gave testimony prior to the publishing of his book that completely contradicts the statments in his book.
“It’s amazing to me to read people blast the democrats for not having alternatives when it’s not the democrats who have made so many mistakes ”
I understand that it is amazing to you. However, if you cannot point out an alternative then how can you claim that the other decision is a mistake.
For example, the only basis for claiming that “there was not enough troops” was that there were competent plans that included more troops, i.e. an alternative.
If you do not have a viable alternative all you are doing is complaining. Last I looked complainin about things really does not good.
“in adhering to their enemies, giving them aid and comfort. ”
Leaking highly classified plans about potential military operations is AID. Your “loopholes” about an enemy and adherence are ridiculous. Lots of spies have been sent to the electric chair for conducting such business with the Soviet Union.
“doesn’t this leaked document indicate that Mr. Bush’s actions have granted aid and comfort to our enemies? ”
The President cannot because what he makes public is no longer classified information. Classified informaiton is what the Executive Branch says is classified information. It is their call. Someone else does not get to make that call. They are leakers or worse.
“If reasonable Muslim leaders were to get the air time that the radicals get, things may start to improve. If they were to condemn those teaching children to “fight the western devilâ€, that would help.”
Good criticism. I think this is true. If the press would stop making the JIHAIST seem so cool and the everyday improvement in the life of the everyday Iraqi that has happened in the last 3 years became centerstage then we would have a lot different opiniion about the course of the war.
One of my favortite statistics about Iraq is this. Before the war ther were 5,000 Internet subscribers, 700,000 telephone subscribers and a total of zero independent, commercial TV stations, radio stations, and newspapers.
Now there are 200,000+ internet subscribers, 7,000,000 telephone suscribers, more than 50 independent TV stations, more than 50 independent radio stations, and more than 200 independent newspapers. If this is not a sign of the progress of freedom I do not know what else there could be.
“One thing I think we need to get rid of is the “add-ons†and have every bill be singular in nature.”
Nice theory, impossible practice. What member of Congress is going to vote for a rule that will eliminate their ability to bring home the bacon that their constituents demand. If you do not bring home federal dollars for the airport, water treatement plant, Lawrence Welk museum, or The Big Dig ($14 billion dollars worth) you are going to have problems.
“Also note that the Dems were chearing the Generals in support of Rumsfeld-bashing, but tended to ignore the other suggestions, ”
Exactly. Plus we are only given the generals who dissent opinions. The media rarely trumpets the discussions of anyone who supports the current policy.
Further, you need to step back a bit. Generals are very prone to making these types of claims. They never have enough troops. This has been going on for all of history. Often their troop requests are ridiculous because the most often fallacy of their position is that they are not considerin the troop requirements in other theatres.
The Secretary of Defense and the President of the United States must look at the whole picture. The highest ranking person who testified to the Democratic committee was a major general who commanded but a single division in Iraq. That is a very narrow focus.
Further, the Democrats and these critics cannot have it both ways.
They cannot complain like they have that the Secretary of Defense has made our war on global terror and support in afghanastan weaker because of Iraq when they then call for substantially higher troop levels than was is currently in Iraq.
It is clear that the Secretary of Defense looked at the whole picture and balanced the needs of other defense requirements with the force capabilities in Iraq.
What the critics of force level do not talk about is that there are costs and benefits to higher troop levels. They will not consider that fact.
Where is the outrage from liberals on this leaked intelligence?
Anyway, the report does say that surrending now in Iraq such as DFL, Nation of Islam, and CAIR endorsed candidate Keith Ellison call for would put the world in greater danger of Islamic terror, while a coalition victory there would make joining the terrorists less attractive to Muslims.
bsimon: “We’d better get more troops over there if we want to avoid a bigger problem than we have now.” Excuse me? An Iraqi civil war is not a US problem; if that society wants violence, they shall have it. The US should wash its hands of that foul place.
rod: There is always at least one guy like you on this type of board that ascribes assertions to me that I never made, and claims that I feel “superior”. I have empirical evidence of this, and I don’t get why. Is it that you view the world in terms of stereotypes and naturally feel yourself inferior? Because I’m not doing anything explicit to cause those claims and reactions.
dare2sayit: Why should anyone be outraged when information gathered and analysis done by bureaucrats who draw a salary at taxpayer expense make it public? We all ought to know what the report says. What’s the big secret?
rod: Also, some of us come to these boards in the hope of convincing someone to look at an issue differently, and in any case there is the relief of blowing off some steam.
I see Michael. The “war criminal” banter is very effective in making your case.
I think the relief of blowing off some steam is best done in private.
dare2, point out one person, just one, who has said we should “surrender” in Iraq. I want to see a quote and a link. If you can’t supply it, put a sock in it.
You’re hatred of Ellison has crossed the line into the fanatical.
Here’s an interesting post from another blog by AJ a recent former Defense Intelligence officer who spent two years working on Iraq policy.
The recently-declassified NIE titled “Trends in Global Terrorism: Implications for the United States”, which was finalized nearly six months ago, is a devastating repudiation of virtually everything leading Executive and Defense Department leaders have told Americans about the war on terror.
As I’ve written before, the most important thing to look for in this kind of analysis is trends. Events are different than how things are going in general, and here’s an example: the report states that U.S. efforts have damaged the leadership of al-Qa’ida and “disrupted” is operations, which is almost certainly true. There have been plenty of operations disrupted. But that’s a summary of events, not a trend. More important is the follow-up that “the global jihadist movement . . . is spreading and adapting to counterterrorism efforts.” Event: we’ve done some good. Trend: things are getting worse, not better.
Much of the initial assessment is uncontroversial. Jihadism is decentralized, it’s expanding, self-radicalized cells (especially in Europe) are a growing threat, etc. The real meat, both analytically and politically, involves Iraq. Bear in mind that the report focuses on Terrorism, not Iraq per se, so it’s instructive that a great deal of the summary addresses Iraq.
The Iraq portion begins somewhat dubiously, with the statement that “perceived jihadist success there would inspire more fighters to continue the struggle elsewhere.” That’s disingenuous to the extent that jihadists already perceive success and fighters have already moved beyond Iraq (claiming responsibility for attacks in Jordan and other Gulf states). The assessment that Iraq “is shaping a new generation of terrorist leaders and operatives” is also not surprising, though I think more people should realize that a similar situation in Afghanistan caused the rise of al-Qa’ida in the first place. No matter how or when we leave, there will be trained and angry operatives who will lash out in the future.
But to me, the most important, the scariest, and the most damning part of the entire summary is this single sentence:
We assess that the underlying factors fueling the spread of the movement outweigh its vulnerabilities are are likely to do so for the duration of the timefram of this Estimate.
Ladies and gentlemen, that’s the ballgame right there. What this intelspeak means in English is, “The causes fueling terrorism outweigh the vulnerabilities of terrorists and their networks, and that fact is likely to be true indefinitely.” The assessment is saying that the main motivations for terrorism — and the report puts Iraq at the top of that long list — outweigh our ability to prevent it, meaning, essentially, that Iraq is more harmful than helpful in our counterterror strategy. I already knew that, and so did most readers here, but I don’t think that’s the conventional wisdom. Until now, at least. Anyone who defends the Iraq war now has to answer this question: The collective judgment of the entire U.S. intelligence community is that under the watch of the Bush administration terrorism is becoming more of a threat, not less of one, primarily due to Iraq. Do you support continuing that failure, or changing the course to solve it?
The Bush administration is trying to spin the findings, saying that they reflect previous statements, but this response is pathetic. The spin conflates fact with trend, basically saying that President Bush has stated some of the facts contained in the report (shorter version: “The report says al-Qa’ida is bad. President Bush has said al-Qa’ida is bad!”) while failing to address the assessment that things are getting worse, not better.
One more time, because it’s really a remarkable assessment, despite being in bureaucrat-speak:
We assess that the underlying factors fueling the spread of the movement outweight its vulnerabilities and are likely to do so for the duration of the timeframe of this Estimate.
Those underlying factors are listed as, basically, entrenched grievances and humiliation; Iraq; lack of political reform in Muslim nations; and pervasive anti-U.S. sentiment among most muslims. These are all interconnected, of course, and Bush administration policies, especially its intransigence on Iraq, are hurting more than they are helping. Analysts are generally discouraged from offering policy suggestions (that’s for policymakers, not interpreters of information), but this transcends that usual prohibition a little, and the strongest statement is this:
Countering the spread of the jihadist movement will require coordinated multilateral efforts that go well beyond operations to capture or kill terrorist leaders.
That is a concept this administration, and its rubber-stamp Congress, simply doesn’t seem able to grasp.
The report is definitive, provocative, and damning, and every day between now and the elections Democrats — and sane Republicans — should demand accountability for these unconscionable failures of Presidential and Congressional leadership.
I’m sure there are bad leaks, but this is a good one. The only way it would be better is if the entire document was leaked.
What has been seen so far supports the fact that invading Iraq was as bad as it gets. And on top of that, Bush did it so poorly…
Terrorism is not an army to attack. It’s not a place on the map. It’s a technique used to, wait for it, terrorize people.
What will stop the use of terrorism as a tool will be all civil nations coming together and fighting it with our combined police and investigative tactics.
dare2bwrong: I visited your web site today. Your family must be very proud.
Dora,
Muslims extremists have been trying to destroy Western civilization for decades, including during the Clinton administration. You say that the liberation of Iraq from Saddam instigated Muslim hatred, but then so did a play in Germany, truthful comments from the Pope, a gay politician in the Netherlands, a cartoon, Salmon Rushdie, etc, etc, etc. They will look for any excuse to kill infidels including killing an innocent Nun.
Dora, Bush had nothing to do with the growing problem of Islamic radicalism, he’s trying to save us from it.
dare2: he’s been very ineffective to date and he’s had 5 years. He refuses to do anything differently than he has been doing for the last 5 years. It’s time to get rid of the team that’s screwed everything up.
Dora,
Thanks for the friendly response this time, I appreciate it.
Hopefully common sense will come through and people will realize that radical Islam is the problem here, not the United States of America.
I typically respond in kind to the posts I’m responding to dare2.
I really don’t see that people don’t understand radical Islam is the problem.
Actually the NIE was very specific in declaring that the homeland of the United States was more secure now. Outlying US interest may have some increased vulnerabilities, but because of the degradation of Al Quaeda they have fewer capabilites even though they have higher head counts.
“The only way it would be better is if the entire document was leaked. ”
This is an incredibly stupid statement. Again, leaking an entire NIE would be treason.
Anyone calling for the release of the entire document is a total idiot.
Note: the title of the report is Global Trends in Terrorism. Maybe I missed it, but no one has mentioned that there is a second NIE on the situation in Iraq that has not been released. It’s been floating around on some of the blogs…I checked Fox and couldn’t find a mention of it. Here’s an article on it from the Times:
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/09/28/washington/28intel.html
Keith: Thank you for one of the best posts ever in this space. Every word is right.
Mark: Why shouldn’t the whole NIE be made public? What’s the big secret?
“Why shouldn’t the whole NIE be made public? What’s the big secret? ”
The entire document contains much more detailed information about intelligence gathering and sources. To release it would risk these capabilities.
Essentially the conclusions have been already released. Any other requests for release is political grandstanding that serves no purpose.
Mark: Well, that’s a straight answer. Thanks.
I heard one person say that someone “altered my thinking at least somewhat.” Still no one has admitted to anyone changing any minds, but I do agree with Michael B for once that sometimes it is just for blowing off steam in the hopes to changing opinions.
What I find incredible about the Iraq situation is that more people in Iraq think that their country is heading in the right direction than people in the US do.
When Iraqis were asked if their country was heading in the right direction 41% of them said yes.
When Americans were asked if their country was heading in the right direction 31.8% (an aveage of various polls) said yes.
Simply amazing. TO make it even more incredible the 41% total includes the Sunni region were only 16% said that Iraq was going in the right direction. WIthin the southern areas of Iraq an incredible 65% of the respondents stated that things in Iraq were heading inthe right direction.
When asked why they thought things were headed in the right direction, 31% stated an elected national government, 21% stated freedom and democracy.
When asked if the various ethnic groups in Iraq should be segregated 66% of those polled strongly disagreed and 12% disagreed. Only in teh Kurdish areas was the idea of a union not strongly endorsed.
When asked “Thinking about the hardships you have suffered since the US invasion, do you think ousting Saddam Hussein was worth it or not?” 77% of all Iraqis surveyed agreed that ousting Hussein was worth it. This statement was supported by 98% of the SHia, 91% of the Kurds, but not surprisly, just 13% of the Sunni.
Mark,
Thanks for the truth. Liberals can’t handle the truth.
Well, there is always the bad news. OVer 40% of Iraqis think that attacks against American troops are justified. I guess that they are not very appreciative!
The point is that the democratic process is going very well in Iraq. Remember President Clinton’s statement that we must not assume that democracy will fail in Iraq because of their religion or differences.
If we could somehow not focus on the car-bombings and other atrocious violence undertaken by evil people, and looked at Iraq as a government project the liberals would not be able to stop gushing about it. It would be nice to get this type of social benefit from welfare/education spending in this country.
Oh Mark I’m so glad you again brought up that Iraqi’s think things are going so well. Of course you haven’t provided a citation for those figures even though I asked for the link the first time you provided them but no matter. Here’s a citation for you and dare2 to read: http://tinyurl.com/ndz9g It’s to a poll conducted the first week in Sept. 2006.
Here’s some excerpts:
A large majority of Iraqis–71%–say they would like the Iraqi government to ask for US-led forces to be withdrawn from Iraq within a year or less. Given four options, 37 percent take the position that they would like US-led forces withdrawn “within six months,†while another 34 percent opt for “gradually withdraw[ing] US-led forces according to a one-year timeline.â€
– Support for attacks against US-led forces has increased sharply to 61 percent (27% strongly, 34% somewhat). This represents a 14-point increase from January 2006, when only 47 percent of Iraqis supported attacks.
– More broadly, 79 percent of Iraqis say that the US is having a negative influence on the situation in Iraq, with just 14 percent saying that it is having a positive influence.
– Asked “If the US made a commitment to withdraw from Iraq according to a timeline, do you think this would strengthen the Iraqi government, weaken it, or have no effect either way?†53 percent said that it would strengthen the government, while just 24 percent said it would weaken the government.
– Asked what effect it would have “if US-led forces withdraw from Iraq in the next six months,†58 percent overall say that violence would decrease (35% a lot, 23% a little)
How old are those figures you cite anyway?
Now who is it that can’t handle the truth?
September 2006.
Your statements are correct. It shows that the Iraqis do want us out but they are interested in democracy and security too.
We will leave when the job is done.
Hmmm, what type of a social benefit is a bloody civil war? I don’t think even you Mark would see that as nice to get from welfare/education spending in this country.
Looks like you may be using Jan ‘06 figures here since your statement says that over 40% support the attacks on US troops and the report I cite says 47% supported that in Jan 06 and now 61% support it.
To put it another way, you’ve been ignoring everything that’s happened for the last 9 months. That kind of denial is not an admirable trait Mark. You’ve pointed out many times that you’re a statistician. Is it valid to ignore 9 months of your data when doing a statistical analysis?
the very conserative Brookings institute, which has been running these statistics for 2 years.
Nah, the report I site is up to date.
There are so many problems with Iraqi polls like that that it’s hard to choose.
Here’s one: the fact that majority of Iraqis want us gone in a year or less - well of course they do. So do I. Everybody does. Bush does.
And: if 79% think we’re having a negative impact, why do only 37% of them want us gone within 6 months? I’d think they’d want us gone immediately.
And, I’d guess - from what I’ve read - that the Shiites, the majority, are far more likely to want us gone quickly than the Sunnis, the minority who might feel most vulnerable. That doesn’t necesarily mean it would be the right thing to do, though.
Really, the main point is the siutation is just as confusing for them as it is for us. They want us gone because they’re pissed we’re there to one degree or another; yet many of the same people don’t want us gone because they understand that chaos might result.
But if they want us gone and especially if the situation would not get worse, then of course we should go.
“what type of a social benefit is a bloody civil war”
These people have lived with a civil war for decades. They were brutally repressed by the Hussein government.
THey see things as an IMPROVEMENT>
Well Mark, they may be interested in democracy and security but they obviously don’t think that they will achieve it with us there if they want us out.
And I guess you’re under-reporting if you’re using the same poll but said over 40% said they support the attacks on US troops. The poll says 61%. Well sure it’s over 40% so you could argue, in a disingenuous sort of way, that 61% is over 40%. But if you did you’d clearly be trying to manipulate the data. no?
You say we will leave when the job is done. I conclude from this that if the Iraqi’s want us out even though they are interested in democracy and security then they don’t think we can get the job done.
And if you really take a look at your numbers and compare them to previous polls, you’ll see there has been a downturn in Iraqi’s believing that things are going in the right direction. Google up reports from after Hussein was toppled and others over time and the trend is clear.
Trends are important. Or would you like to deny that too Mark? Is it the indivdual polls that are more important than trends just like the questions are not important to polls?
And frankly I don’t find it at all amazing that more Americans think that the country is headed in the wrong direction. We are also seeing our democracy and security going in the wrong direction in addition to the all the issues of the war.
You’re right about that Paul. Dueling polls.
They were not living in the middle of a bloody civil war during the Hussein reign. He was a despot to be sure but they were not seeing the kind of violence in the streets that they are seeing now Mark. No one was digging a trench around Baghdad to try to stem the violence. You’re argument is slipping away from you. Again, who is it that can’t handle the truth?
I don’t agree that Bush wants us gone in a year or less. He’s made it clear we are not leaving Iraq while he is president.
As far as trends, the trending in the Brookings poll on direction is actually going up. The numbers peaked at 67% in April 2005 before dropping into the 40% range. It had a one month drop off to 30% in March 06, the only time since Nov 2004 that the “Wrong Direction” exceded “Right”
When asked if things will be getting better 32% stated yes while 34% believed that things will be the same. This number has slipped somewhat from the greater than 50% numbers from late 2005. What is still extraordinary about this is that these people believe their country will be getting better in greater levels than Americans.
Again, remember that these numbers are overall Iraqis. If you eliminate the Sunni population the numbers are much higher. 65% of the South agrees that Iraq is heading in the right direction.
Further, in this poll 55% of Iraqis approve of the job the Prime Minister is doing. Again, these numbers are depressed by the negative responses in the Sunni areas. In the South the PM approval rating is 84%, with only 1% of the respondents disapproving of the PM. IN Bagdad 53% approve of the PM’s performance and only 11% disapprove.
When asked about attacks on US troops being justified, 47% stated yes. This number is very regionally based. This was supported by only 16% of the Kurds and 41% of the Shia. 88% of the Sunnis on the other hand responded yes.
” that if the Iraqi’s want us out even though they are interested in democracy and security then they don’t think we can get the job done.”
That is not hte conclusion of Iraqi leadership.
“They were not living in the middle of a bloody civil war during the Hussein reign”
Then why in the hell have the United States and the UK been flying missions to support the “No-Fly Zones” from 1991 through 2003? Twelve years to support the Kurds in the North and the Shia in the South from brutal repressions from Hussein.
Again, you can live in a fairy tale land that everything was milk and honey for 70% of the citizens of Iraq but you are incorrect. They were being brutally suppressed by Hussein and a minority tribe of Iraq.
Here is the complete list of persons convicted of treason against the US - none of whom were executed. Only about 40 cases have been tried, most of which resulted in acquittals.
John Brown
Iva Toguri D’Aquino, who is frequently identified with “Tokyo Rose”
Governor Thomas Dorr 1844, convicted of treason against the state of Rhode Island; see Dorr Rebellion
Mildred Gillars
Hans Max Haupt, convicted of treason and sentenced to life in prison for aiding his son who was a spy for Germany during the Second World War
Tomoya Kawakita, sentenced to death for treason, but eventually deported to Japan.
(source: wiki)
Now, if we want to get into alien and sedation acts and other state secrets laws, there are more cases and convictions. But these were not, strictly speaking, convictions for treason.
And to the other point,
I’m obviously not saying that Bush deciding to make the report public is treasonous. I’m saying that by helping the ‘evildoers’ recruit more people to help kill us, he has granted aid to those enemies.
I’d like to see a link to that Brookings poll you like to quote.
Well, gee, why do I think that wouldn’t be the conclusion of the Iraqi leadership? Democracy is flourishing–they don’t listen to their people either. But when did they ever, eh? The Bush administration once said if the Iraqi people wanted us to leave we’d leave. oops. they screwed up again.
And you’re still trying to sugar coat pretty dismal figures.
Why haven’t you commented on the poll that I posted the link to Mark? Oh nevermind, I know you don’t want to shake your certainty.
What fails to get publicized is that many people suggested that Saddam and his regime were getting much weaker in the few years before the 03 invasion. His army was much smaller in size, his WMD were gone, and his stronghold was getting weaker. If so many people in Iraq felt that getting rid of him was such a good idea, then we should have left it up to them to take care of it. Instead, we had to go in and do the job ourselves, and without a solid post-war plan that would help to keep the country stable. Everyone in Iraq (except the Sunnis) may have agreed that getting rid of Saddam was a good idea, but they don’t seem to be able to agree on how to organize and run the country without him.
Dora, I think the only reason he says that is because he very much doubts it would be smart to leave before then. If the situation changed he’d be thrilled.
This is aside from the question of permanent bases. I still have no idea what our formal expectation is on that, or whether there’s a serious disagreement on them between the parties inDC.
Ed, we had no firm idea that his WMDs were gone. The most we would have had without the invasion was a suspicion that for some odd reason he had destroyed them without telling anyone. Or hidden them real well. And a stronger suspicion that whatever the case, it was a temporary situation.
If we had backed away from the war, and the sanctions regime had then withered, as it’s almost certainly would have, he would have been in a stronger situation than any time since 1991. He’d have been stomping around the Middle East as the man who’d stood up to the Americans; he’d have been claiming that after 15 years he won Gulf War I.
Michael Blaine says “bsimon: “We’d better get more troops over there if we want to avoid a bigger problem than we have now.†Excuse me? An Iraqi civil war is not a US problem; if that society wants violence, they shall have it. The US should wash its hands of that foul place.”
I’m in the Powell school of thought, where the mis-named “pottery barn” rule is in effect. “You break it, you buy it.” Seeing how we helped create this debacle & potential civil war in Iraq, we do bear some responsibility for mitigating the potential harm that would result from such an event. Even if you don’t agree with us bearing some responsibility, equally, if not more important, is the fact that Iraq becoming a failed state would be far more dangerous for the region and for the US than Afghanistan being run by the Taliban ever was. Think it through, man.
Mark, in the 5:03 PM post yesterday, says (first quoting me):
““The prospect of staying sucks. â€
I sort of think that you overstate the case. The potential value of staying in Iraq versus the cost are enormous. Well worth the costs in any historical framework.”
If I overstate the case when I say the prospect of staying sucks, how would you describe your assumption that staying the course will result in success? Pipe-dream isn’t quite right, because there is an actual chance of success. If you reread my post, you’ll see that I argue for staying, but not staying the course, because staying the course is taking too long, at too high a cost in dollars and lives. If you’re going to resort to your casualty rate in WWII comparison, please argue for reinstating the draft. I’d also remind you WWII was against armies of a couple hundred thousand men, not a couple “dead enders” hiding amongst the sand dunes.
Mark claims “When Iraqis were asked if their country was heading in the right direction 41% of them said yes.”
You know Mark, you make so many fallacious claims, I can’t keep up. Though its funny you quote statistics about how Iraqis feel about their quality of life. Just last night NPR was interviewing someone on the surveys taken of Iraqis & how they feel about life over there. She made some comment about how “taking surveys is a little difficult due to the security situation, and sometimes the questioners get killed.” That kind of summarizes it, doesn’t it. In one thread you claim that US Polls underrepresent Republicans because their sampling is invalid, yet in another you want to quote a poll on Iraqis opinions on quality of life there without addressing polling practices? How accurate do you think polls are in a country where strangers are sometimes shot on sight?
Well said bsimon!!!! I was thinking something similar but having a hard time putting it into the right words.
Paul - true, we had no firm idea the WMDs were there either. There was never any “solid proof” of their existence as we were making war plans. But our administration led us astray on that one. We based most of our assumption on comments from the Chalabi group who obviously had an agenda right from the beginning. We gave them too much credit and there were plenty of people trying to raise red flags about that.
Ed, we based most of our assumptions on 10 years of consensus that he was hiding something, and plenty of behavior on his part indicating he was hiding something. The idea that most of the basis for believing he had weapons came from these suspect sources is revisionism.
Remember, I’m in the camp that thinks we probably shouldn’t have done this. Even if in the long run it turns out for the best, I’m just not convinced it made sense for us to put our nation on the line as being responsible for the future of Iraq, with every possible version of angry Iraqi angry primarily at us from now on.
But the discussion has to happen based on reality. Every option sucked.
And it really is true, the measure of whether this will in the end turn out to be better for the region and for Iraq will come in years ahead. And I also still believe that by then, in 10-20 years, whatever the situation is it’ll be easily better than what was offered by the permanent presence of the Hussein & Sons regime.
Okay, so I should have said “much” instead of “most”,true. And I agree that we’ll have to wait at least 20 years to have a solid idea of the more permanent results of our foray into the Middle East. For now, we’ll never know what would have happened to the regime had we let the Iraqis take care of themselves.
I don’t know that I agree Hussein would have been stronger than pre-91 if we had not gone to war. There were many people pushing for changing the sanctions, not getting rid of them (although there may have also been people pushing for dropping them). Some changes in our policies, along with the weakening of the regime, may have given the Iraqis an opening to help themselves without us having to spend hundreds of billions of dollars and thousands of lives on their behalf.
Everyone is trying to describe what is happening in Iraq in objective terms, statistics, polls, numbers of whatever. But just taking a couple of statistics from this past week:
2–the number of boxes of human heads that were dropped off in a town square
40–the number of Iraqi men found tortured and shot yesterday
What of the subjective side of these numbers? What are the experiences of people who witness these acts, or are subjected to them, or participate in them? These acts of horror are shaping their society as we speak. How do you describe this? Their society is being traumatized in a way that is hard to measure. Our invasion of Iraq has unleashed evil forces that were there before we got there and which we will not be able to contain. It’s out of the box, and the world is less safe because of it, and will be for a long time.
“I’d like to see a link to that Brookings poll you like to quote.”
Look it up yourself. I am not your librarian. The Brookings Institute. Liberal think tank. There is a thing called a search engine/
“many people suggested that Saddam and his regime were getting much weaker in the few years before the 03 invasion. His army was much smaller in size, his WMD were gone, and his stronghold was getting weaker”
I think that is a legitimate argument. I just think that it is not based on facts. I think the sanctions were getting weaker. There were several fronts on which people were workign on eliminating sanctions: French and Russian on the “diplomatic” end and left wing advocay groups on the humanitarian end. UNICEF blamed more than a million Iraqi deaths on sanctions, and more directly the US.
“you make so many fallacious claims”
Whatever. I just disagree with you on most things. If you can show a “fallacious” claim I have made then do it. I dont think you can.
“you claim that US Polls underrepresent Republicans because their sampling is invalid”
No, I claim that the Star and Tribune poll underrepresents Republican vote totals because their sampling technique is invalid. Anyone who reviews the polls done by the Minnesota Poll cannot help but make this same conclusion.
“How accurate do you think polls are in a country where strangers are sometimes shot on sight? ”
Almost as accurate as opinion polling in the US.
The most likely sampling issue is that there may be more overrepresntation of urban people in Iraq versus non-urban in these polls. Obviously there may be some underreprentation of total dead end communities. THese two effects would probably cancel each other out.
“I don’t know that I agree Hussein would have been stronger than pre-91 ”
Are you just saying this or do you acutally think it. It is clear that if sanctions would have been removed that Hussein would end up stronger mainly because it would have been impossible to put more sanctions on him.
Now, when you are thinking about whether it was worth it to remove Hussein, consider the Iran nuclear issue. Do you think that at this moment in time, with Iran announcing they are pursuing nuclear weapons having a Saddam Hussein led Iraq would make the region more stable?
What we would be talking about now is a potential nuclear arms race between Iraq and Iran. Not only would these nations have the ability to develop these weapons but they could easily deliver them to their foes too. Given that each of them has already used chemical weapons on each other, escalation to nuclear weapons is not out of the question.
Paul says: If the situation changed he’d [Bush] be thrilled
We’d all be thrilled Paul. Yes of course he thinks it’s a bad idea to leave Iraq before he leaves office just as he thinks it’s a bad idea to even talk about an exit plan or timetable. As the commander-in-chief it was his obligation to include exit planning in his war plan. His administration discouraged even talking about it let alone including it and has refused to address it since. He wants to leave the mess for someone else to clean up. This time his daddy can’t clean it up.
Mark says: Look it up yourself. I am not your librarian.
Don’t get huffy. I want to make sure I’d be looking at the same one you are. If you’ve got the stats then what is the exact name of the report and what is the date of it? Then, I’ll look it up. Sheesh. It’s not like they’ve got only one report you know.
Alright Mark, if we’re taking Iraqi polls at face value, here’s some info for you, from a State Department poll, among others.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/09/26/AR2006092601721.html
“A strong majority of Iraqis want U.S.-led military forces to immediately withdraw from the country, saying their swift departure would make Iraq more secure and decrease sectarian violence, according to new polls by the State Department and independent researchers.”
“71 percent of Iraqis questioned want the Iraqi government to ask foreign forces to depart within a year. By large margins, though, Iraqis believed that the U.S. government would refuse the request, with 77 percent of those polled saying the United States intends keep permanent military bases in the country.”
“Interviews with two dozen Baghdad residents in recent weeks suggest one central cause for Iraqi distrust of the Americans: They believe the U.S. government has deliberately thrown the country into chaos.”
“The most common theory heard on the streets of Baghdad is that the American military is creating a civil war to create an excuse to keep its forces here.”
If you take that poll at face value, we’d be a lot better off getting out & leaving them to their own devices. Maybe withdraw to their neighbors & wait to see how long it takes them to ask us back?
bsimon;
You left out this from your source:
“Mahmoud al-Mashhadani, the outspoken Sunni speaker of parliament who this summer said that “the U.S. occupation is the work of butchers,” now supports the U.S. military staying in Iraq for as long as a decade.”
You fail to mention, from the same source, that among Sunni muslims, the data show the number that want the US out in six months dropped from 83% to 57%
’nuff said
I agree that the Iraqis want us out. But that sentiment is the same as I wanting to win the lottery. It is unrealistic thinking. The Iraqi government is not ready to govern. I hope (what a religious word) that the day the Iraqi government is able to govern is soon.
Does anyone know offhand whether Cheney is still holding his 433,333 Halliburton stock options? And how much of the Carlyle Group investments are in defense contractors who are employed in Iraq? The financial ties are a motive in portraying the National Intelligence Estimate in a certain light. They’ll keep selling the war as long as they keep profiting financially from it. Don’t act surprised.
Les, “’nuff said?” Hardly. The leaders in government have come around to the realization that we are providing at least some kind of stability that would not otherwise exist. The people have not yet come to the same conclusion. Did you notice the little graphics at the bottom of the page? Only some minor number of Kurds want us out within a year. In every other area, the numbers are over 60%, some as high as 80%.
“The leaders in government have come around to the realization that we are providing at least some kind of stability that would not otherwise exist. The people have not yet come to the same conclusion”
And I agree with that 100% also.
I believe much of the increase in violence in Iraq comes from our forcing the Iraqis to change their plan from one of Peace and Reconciliation to another sop to US interests. We made them delete a call for a timetable for withdrawal; we made them weaken a call for cessation of attacks on homes where terrorists MIGHT be hiding to one that says, gee, try to be careful (we accidentally killed 7,800 innocent Iraqis in 2005 alone, lots of Iraqi resentment from that); we made them withdraw their amnesty for ex-Baathists who lost their jobs as government employees and were not Saddam supporters; and we made them change their amnesty plans for resistance fighters who had not killed innocent Iraqis to deny amnesty to any who had killed an American, even though we are the invader/occupier.
This information is from The Times of London, articles dated June 23, 25, and 26 (www.timesonline.co.uk/print/Friendly/0,,1-3-2239088-6047.00.html
www.timesonline.co.uk/print/Friendly/0,,1-524-2242602-524,00.html
www.timesonline.co.uk/print/Friendly/0,,1-3-2243316-6047,00.html
Those groups who had expected amnesty, to be followed by cooperative efforts at building a new Iraq, instead were extremely upset by these changes. We now see the result in daily Sunny/Shia conflict and death.
Will we never learn to keep our stupid noses out of other countries’ business? (Especially the current really stupid neocon noses who think we can destablize the Middle East and then recreate it as The New Middle East and all will be sunshine and happiness.)
“accidentally killed 7,800 innocent Iraqis in 2005 alone”
The Brookings Iraq Index reports that an average of 7 Iraqis were killed by US troops a week in 2005. There are 52 weeks in a year. If you multiply 52 times 7 your get 364.
Brookings also reports that this number averaged 1 per week for Aug 2006, meaning 4.25.
I tend to side with the liberal think tank on this issue.
According to Woodward, insurgent attacks against coalition troops occur, on average, every 15 minutes, a shocking fact the administration has kept secret. “It’s getting to the point now where there are eight-, nine-hundred attacks a week. That’s more than 100 a day. That is four an hour attacking our forces.
Bob Woodward on 60 Minutes to be broadcast 10/1
Double oy. http://tinyurl.co.uk/1fbz
“This is the most essential civil security project in the country — and it’s a failure,” said Stuart W. Bowen Jr., the special inspector general for Iraq reconstruction, an independent office created by Congress. “The Baghdad police academy is a disaster.”
Even in a $21 billion reconstruction effort that has been marred by cases of corruption and fraud, failures in training and housing Iraq’s security forces are particularly significant because of their effect on what the U.S. military has called its primary mission here: to prepare Iraqi police and soldiers so that Americans can depart.
Maybe if there wasn’t a litmus test by the Bush administration for those who were sent there things wouldn’t be such a f*cking mess.
This is truly sickening. How are the Iraqi’s ever going to “stand up so we can stand down” if this is how bad things have gotten?
This is the problem with not taking responsibility and accountabilty for mistakes. You deny them. Sweep them under the rug. And they get many many times worse. It’s always harder to clean up a mess (sometimes impossible) than do it right the first time and change course when you see things are not going as planned.
This is why I can’t abide how our country has been governed in the last 6 years.
This is another Katrina moment.
In 2005 there were 34,131 insurgent attacks. In 2004 there were 26,464. Not much of a secret. YOu can find it in the Brookings Report.
Again, you can tell how partisan these claims are by the language they use. “A shocking fact the administration has kept secret”. BS. Brookings has been keeping track of these stats since November 2003. WHHHHOOOOOOHHHHOOOOO, the evil Bush Empire killing people for Haliburton and OIL!!!!!!
YOu can also tell how essentially ineffective these assaults are. No wonder these people resort to violence like this. THey are ineffective at anything else, even killing innocent people.
Well Mark. This is almost the end of 2006 and the attacks are up considerably. And he’s saying that the number of attacks are worse than we know.
The attacks are ineffective? So are you with that congressman who said that it’s only 2-3 soldiers dying a day? Except that it’s 4-5 now. Tell that to their families. And what about all the ones they’re finding dead every day. Yeah. They’re really ineffective. I’d hate to see them when they’re effective then.
Who was it that rod said can’t handle the truth again?
IF it takes hundreds of attacks to kill a handful of people while you take many more casualties in return, yeah, ineffective. If the insurgent commander was our commander I would want his head for how ineffective he is.
It is only 1-3 soldiers per day. That is a very small cost in military affairs. Tragic. Sad for the families. Sad for the nation. Still a small cost.
The entire death toll (including accidents) in 38 months of Iraq is just one week of average KIAs for the entire WWII conflict. When measured against the times of intense fighting it is the number of deaths we suffered in WWII in a day.
Again, this only proves my point. The insurgency is about changing your mind and getting their way. If they did not have people like you then there would be no insurgency, what woudl be the point.
And why do you think the attacks are up? Do you think that they are achieving anything constructive on the ground? Have they ever defeated the American forces in battle? BEsides killing a bunch of innocent what are they really accomplishing?
In case you do not know the answer, the reason insurgent attacks are increasing is because the anti-Bush rhetoric and belligerence of the opposition is increasing. There also is an election coming up so they want to influence those outcomes. BOOM, BOOM, more civilians dead in a car bomb to get more Democratic votes.
They think they are winning and will be rewarded for their violence.
What a sad day for America that we will be manipulated by a group of evil terrorist.
Classified documents are not supposed to be classified for political expediency. Even when they are classified, members of congress should be allowed to see them for the sake of managing the country.
I think what Bush did here was shameful. He’s been touting how everything in Iraq is getting better, while consensus evidence to the contrary shows otherwise. It further demonstrates how he has lost the trust of the american public.
All members of congress should be allowed to see the NIE (as yet, only 4 pages have been declassified and released) and the contents of which should be summarized and stated to the general public.
“while consensus evidence to the contrary shows otherwise.”
What is the “consensus evidence”? I fail to see any evidence that Iraq is going “badly” other than murder done by insurgents attacking innocent people.
Economically and materially things are getting better in Iraq, and are much better than they were before the war. The constitution has been written and the government is being developed. They are improving their internal security forces and recently the Iraqis began operational control over parts of their militray.
If murder and terroristic violence is gainful means of achieving your ends, then I think that we should drop all civil right protection for blacks because of the KKK and all taxes should be eliminated because of Tim McVeigh and the right wing militias. In fact, I think the entire Washington, DC area should have just surrendered to the sniper attacks a couple of years ago.
We would never cave to the demands of those that practice terroristic violence in this country and nor should we to those that offer the same in Iraq.
Again, I offer you the chance to offer the “consensus evidence”…..no one has yet stated anything that is evidence.
“If they did not have people like you then there would be no insurgency, what woudl be the point”
Nice try Mark. So you would have us assume that the only reason the insurgents are killing people is to make outsiders “think” a particular way. Brilliant!!!! So it has nothing to do with the deeply ingrained hatred and loathing that has been created and fostered over hundreds/thousands of years in that region? When two Sunnis are beheaded and their heads are delivered to their families, is it only done to make me feel upset? So there’s no other point to the killings? I think if that were the case they would be working a lot harder at getting publicity for their murders and rampages so we would all be aghast at everything. We only hear about a sliver of what is going on over in Iraq.
He’s gone over the edge on this one Dora. This argument sucks big time.
AER says “I think what Bush did here was shameful. He’s been touting how everything in Iraq is getting better, while consensus evidence to the contrary shows otherwise. It further demonstrates how he has lost the trust of the american public. ”
According to the coverage of Woodward’s new book, there are other reports predicting an uptick in violence in Iraq in 2007. The Bush admin has been promoting progress in public, while ignoring what the classified reports are telling them. Likewise with the NIE - released in April of this year - that cautions about increased numbers of terrorists & increased risks, while Bush touts progress, when asked publicly.
and AER says “All members of congress should be allowed to see the NIE (as yet, only 4 pages have been declassified and released) and the contents of which should be summarized and stated to the general public. ”
Apparently, members of Congress are entitled to see the report - but few have bothered. According to Dana Priest (Wash Post), one copy each is in a secure room available for perusal by members of the Senate & House. No notes, no staffers, etc. It is unclear how many have made the effort to read it. Even when the Key Findings were declassified earlier this week, Bush, upon being asked if he’d read the report, said “I’ve read the Key Findings, yes.”
“So there’s no other point to the killings?”
Oh, there is no doubt that these people are filled with hate of Americans, the West in general and their fellow Iraqis who have a different brand of Muslim religion.
However, the reason why these insurgents are fighting this terror war is to get the US to withdraw and so they can have the country back the way they had it.
Political persuasion is not going to work. As long as US troops are deployed in Iraq the process of developing their government will continue. As the NIE reports, if there is further progress in developing democratic and government institutions, much of the radicalism will go away. The dead enders only chance is to defeat the Americans and the only way to do that is politically. Destroy the American will by murdering innocents.
I am sad that you bend to such intimidation. Again, it isnothing more than bending to lynchings or Timothy McVeigh. We would not stand for it, but I guess you think it really does not matter.
I am glad that we have someone like George Bush leading the country who will not. W does not need to worry about his support being just Barney and Laura because I will always support him too.
“The Bush admin has been promoting progress in public, ”
The number one objective in Bush foreign policy is to protect the United States from terrorist attack.
The NIE makes it very clear that this has been succesful. It is the first point in the findings. The US global anti-terror efforts have been succesful and have degreaded the terrorist leadership and capabilities.
New terrorists are being “created” but they lack leadership and capabilities.
Iraq, far from not being connected to terrorism, is a central front. The terrorist come to Iraq to fight the infidels. In Iraq, they come to die like bugs to a zapper. That is a good thing.
It also states that the terrorist place a high prestige value on Iraq. If they are victorious there then they will utilize that victory to spur even more recruiting and higher levels of jihad.
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Top ten signs Osama bin Laden is in love with you
10. He carved your initials in an infidel
9. Always gets the camel washed and waxed before he picks you up
8. Never forgets to release an Al-Jazeera video on your birthday
7. You say you enjoy Barry Manilow – next day he sends you Barry Manilow’s ear
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Mark - are you trying to get Bush to adopt you in hopes that you are his long-lost son? I’ve never seen someone so pathetically dedicated to such a slimeball in my life! But hey, I’m happy for ya if you feel good about it. Our country is filled with all types, even the crazy delusionals. I know you think it was a good idea to go into Iraq and get us into this mess and that things are going brilliantly over there, but you are in an awfully small minority group on that one.
You can keep comparing Iraq to WWII, but they have very little in common. Both involved horrendous battles, bad decisions, insurgencies, etc., but ONE VERY BIG DIFFERENCE PERSISTS - IRAQ DID NOT ATTACK OR INVADE ANOTHER COUNTRY. IT DID NOT CLEARLY PROVOKE OUR ATTACK.
And, we helped to liberate some European countries that were not expected to go through years of terrible ethnic in-fighting afterward.
Also, you like to talk about how we still have troops in Bosnia. Consider this quote from Heritage:
“The major exception was the deployment of 15,003 soldiers to Bosnia and Herzegovina in 1996 and the steady presence of 3,000 troops there ever since.”
I don’t think too many people would flinch at having to leave 3,000 troops in Iraq for any length of time. On the other hand, needed 100,000 to 200,000 is quite a different story. Iraq is in a decrepit situation and I hope to hell it works itself out before too long. But you will never see me commending and worshipping Bush the way you do. Heck, I’ve never once even seen Shrubby Sr. say a good thing about his son’s duties as a president.
“IRAQ DID NOT ATTACK OR INVADE ANOTHER COUNTRY. IT DID NOT CLEARLY PROVOKE OUR ATTACK. ”
UN Resolution 687 was the ceasefire agreement in the 1991 Gulf War. It required, among other issues, that Iraq verifiably eliminate its stores of WMDs and accept inspections by UN weapons inspectors. Iraq has never complied with these terms.
When you break a cease fire agreement it means that the cease fire is no longer in effect and you are at war again. The justification for doing this is that post-9/11 it is a very doubtful proposition to allow such a nation to defy demands of that nation to disarm.
Sure, I think that over the next year the number of US troops will decline and that five years from now there will probably only be around 20,000 US troops deployed in the Iraq operational area. This will include probably a brigade size contingent based in Kuwait or Iraq with rapid deploymnet capabilities, US advisors to the Iraqi security forces, support and logistic personell directly supporting the Iraqi security forces, a wing of ground based tactical aircraft and their support, and a US carrier task force directly supporting these forces.
I can see why you think the way you do, I just don’t agree with it. I think we had other options that should explored further before committing ourselves to this war. You’ll say we had already explored them, but I don’t think we did it aggressively enough.
I hope you are right about that many troops getting out, but we’ll see what happens. I still think even 20,000 troops is way too many if the area remains unstable and our troops continue to be killed regularly. I don’t share your optimism that our venture in Iraq is going to transform the Middle East for the better, but maybe you have a crystal ball filled with rose petals.
my sources in the military say to watch over the next week. the military is going to be very aggressive this week. the total curfew that began today may be part of it.
Mark, I’m not going to respond to each of your delusional statements individually. It’s not worth the effort. You refuse to see or believe anything out of your realm of certainty. To you if only we would all clap louder things would be magically be better. Stay in neverneverland Mark. Denial is a safe comfortable place to be but it doesn’t make reality disappear. You admire Bush his certainty on this and follow him unquestioningly. And you have as much credibility as he does, which is to say nada since most Americans believe their eyes and not Bush’s words.
“I can see why you think the way you do, I just don’t agree with it. I think we had other options that should explored further before committing ourselves to this war. You’ll say we had already explored them, but I don’t think we did it aggressively enough. ”
And I think that is a reasonable position to take, even though you are correct I disagree about “exploring”. There comes a time when you have to make a decision. THe decision was made.
“I still think even 20,000 troops is way too many if the area remains unstable”
If it remains unstable the number will stay the same. Once reasonable stability is reached we will reduce the number of manuever brigades and support troops. I think 20,000 is the right amount once the insurgency is defeated or the Iraqis can control it themselves. This force would deter Iran and can be used as a ready reserve for any force the Iraqi government cannot handle.
It may take five years to reach this. There may be lots of other snakes in the grass to deal with, like Kurdish nationalism, but there are workable solutions.
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