Good Reads

Guestposter Bob von Sternberg on how Bloomberg might affect the presidential race in Minnesota

June 22nd, 2007 – 2:04 PM by D.J. Tice

Political reporter von Sternberg links to an article suggesting the New York Mayor’s independent run could be good news for the GOP:

vonste.jpgIt might seem to be a stretch, but if newly-independent New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg throws his hat (and his billions) into the presidential race, it could reverberate as far away as Minnesota.

The new, counterintuitive, conventional wisdom is that, contrary to the initial conventional wisdom, a Bloomberg candidacy couldbloomberg.jpg hurt the Democratic nominee more than the GOP’s.

According to a column by the New Republic’s John Judis, it all boils down to independent voters.(Registration is required and they’ll try to sell you a subscription, but you can get a couple issues free.)

His argument: “Independents are no longer a catch-all in American politics for people who can’t make up their mind, but a distinct political tendency: liberal on social issues, fiscally moderate (skeptical about new taxes and about large-scale government initiatives), and deeply committed to political reform (that is, convinced that special interests hold sway in Washington and over the two major parties).”

Judis lumps Minnesota into states he calls “Blue-state Independents,” as opposed to Western “Sagebrush Independents.”

“With his strong stand on social issues, including gun control, global warming, and non-partisan government, Bloomberg would stand an excellent chance of winning a share of the Blue-state (although probably not the Sagebrush) Independents,” Judis wrote. “He could make life difficult for Democratic candidates in parts of New England, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Oregon, and even California. In a close election, that might be enough to put a Republican in the White House.”

For the record, in Minnesota (an increasingly purple state that nonetheless hasn’t voted for a Republican since Richard Nixon) the November exit poll found that independents made up 24 percent of the state’s voters, compared to 36 percent Republicans and 41 percent Democrats.

Bob von Sternberg

2 Responses to "

Good Reads

Guestposter Bob von Sternberg on how Bloomberg might affect the presidential race in Minnesota"

dare2sayit.com says:

June 22nd, 2007 at 8:51 pm

Bob,

John McCain and others spoke at the State Fair a couple of years ago, and you seemed more interested in the few liberal fruitcakes who were not only protesting but DISRUPTING the event and you ended up doing a story on THEM. Hopefully you and your liberal bias won’t take over for Eric.

John E Iacono says:

June 23rd, 2007 at 5:02 pm

Judging by Bloomberg’s attitude toward the Second Amendment and his disregard for the Supreme Court regarding lawsuits against gun manufacturers, one could reasonably assume that the NRA segment of the population would at LEAST never vote for him, and would likely be REALLY energized.

Add to them the far left which does not trust him, and the far right which doesn’t either, I don’t see how he would have much of a chance. But I do think Bob may be right that Republicans might benefit more.

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